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Strategic Chessboard

The Unfolding Strategic Environment: Reconciling Enduring Principles with Revolutionary Change

The contemporary strategic environment presents a paradox. On one hand, the fundamental nature of war as a political instrument, driven by human factors and subject to friction and uncertainty, appears timeless. Carl von Clausewitz’s assertion that war serves political objectives remains a crucial anchor, forcing strategists to connect means with ends, even amidst technological fascination. Similarly, Sun Tzu’s principles regarding deception, intelligence, and achieving advantage with minimal direct confrontation resonate strongly in an era increasingly defined by non-traditional operations and persistent competition below the threshold of open warfare.

Yet, the character of conflict is undergoing a profound transformation. Technological disruption, particularly in the digital domain, is eroding traditional military advantages, intensifying “grey zone” activities, empowering non-state actors, and blurring the very definitions of war and peace. This necessitates a critical re-examination of established strategic paradigms and a forward-looking approach to national security. The challenge for policymakers and strategists lies in reconciling the enduring nature of war with its rapidly evolving character.

From Deterrence by Punishment to Deterrence by Resilience?

The Cold War’s strategic stability, largely built upon the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), faces fundamental challenges in the digital age. While nuclear deterrence created a precarious balance, its logic struggles to adapt to threats operating outside its established framework. Cyberspace and information warfare lack the clear attribution mechanisms and proportional response options that underpin traditional deterrence by punishment. As Thomas Rid notes, establishing credibility and effective retaliation in these domains is problematic. Jeffrey Knopf’s work on “Fourth Wave” deterrence highlights how emerging threats disrupt existing models.

Furthermore, the strategic landscape is no longer solely dominated by states. Powerful technology firms, transnational terrorist organisations, and ideologically driven groups operate with increasing autonomy and influence, complicating deterrence calculations built on state-centric assumptions. The conflict in Ukraine provides stark examples, where companies like SpaceX have deployed capabilities, such as Starlink, that significantly impact battlefield communications and information warfare dynamics, challenging the state’s traditional monopoly on such strategic assets. This diffusion of power necessitates a broader conception of deterrence, moving beyond punishment towards denial, resilience, deception, and proactive information operations. Security may increasingly depend on the ability to withstand, adapt, and operate effectively within a contested information environment, rather than solely on the threat of overwhelming retaliation.

The Digital Revolution and the Transformation of Conflict Logic

The digital revolution represents more than just the introduction of new tools; it signifies a potential “change of consciousness” in warfare, as Christopher Coker suggests. Conflict becomes less geographically bounded and more psychological, abstract, and continuous, eroding distinctions between wartime and peacetime. Cyber operations, AI-enabled decision-making, and sophisticated disinformation campaigns are not merely adjuncts to traditional military power; they are becoming central components of strategic competition. China’s “Three Warfares” doctrine—integrating psychological operations, public opinion manipulation, and legal maneuvering—exemplifies how state actors are weaponising the information domain to achieve strategic aims.

This shift challenges classical strategic concepts. How is escalation controlled when cyberattacks lack clear attribution? How is victory defined when conflict plays out continuously in the non-physical domain? The Ukraine conflict serves as a real-world laboratory, demonstrating the strategic significance of cyber defenses, AI-driven targeting, and narrative warfare alongside conventional operations. It highlights how eroding conventional advantages forces a rethink of the very currency of power. Non-state actors, like ISIS, have also adeptly exploited the digital realm for recruitment, propaganda, and operational coordination, demonstrating the asymmetric advantages offered by this environment.

Systemic Fragility, Strategic Agility, and Redefined Victory

The deep integration of technology across society creates unprecedented efficiencies but also introduces systemic fragility. Interconnectedness means that disruptions—whether from cyberattacks, pandemics, financial crises, or supply chain breakdowns—can cascade rapidly with significant security implications. Consequently, building national resilience—encompassing robust cybersecurity, hardened infrastructure, diversified supply chains, and societal preparedness—becomes a core strategic imperative.

Alongside resilience, strategic agility is paramount. The accelerating pace of technological and geopolitical change means that strategies and institutions must be capable of rapid adaptation. The failure of European powers to adapt their doctrines to the realities of industrialised warfare before World War I, as chronicled by Barbara Tuchman, serves as a potent warning against strategic rigidity. Fostering agility requires institutional cultures that embrace learning and experimentation, empower decentralised action, and anticipate change.

This evolving landscape also forces a re-evaluation of “victory”. As warfare expands beyond purely military considerations to encompass cyber, economic, and informational domains, success becomes more ambiguous. Robert Mandel’s distinction between “war-winning” (tactical success) and “peace-winning” (achieving sustainable political outcomes) is increasingly pertinent. Future conflicts, likely to be protracted and involve multiple actors with divergent goals, may necessitate strategies focused on achieving iterative, adaptable political objectives rather than decisive military triumphs.

Adapting Strategy for an Unfolding Future

While some argue that classical, state-centric models of war are obsolete, discarding the foundational insights of strategists like Clausewitz and Sun Tzu would be premature. As Lawrence Freedman emphasises, war remains shaped by human agency and political motives, regardless of technology. The core task is not replacement but adaptation: applying enduring principles to navigate the complexities of the contemporary environment.

Successfully navigating the future strategic environment requires a conceptual shift. Technological foresight, AI-driven analysis, and robust cyber capabilities are necessary but insufficient. The decisive factor may be institutional and cultural: the capacity for continuous learning, adaptation, and innovation. Strategy must become truly multidimensional, integrating all instruments of national power—diplomatic, informational, military, and economic—within a coherent framework that acknowledges both the timeless nature and the transforming character of conflict. The future belongs to those who can master this complex, dynamic interplay.


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Views of Fukuoka / 福岡の景色

One of the things many locals of Fukuoka like about their city is that it has all of the city conveniences but also, not too far away, it has lots of nature and scenery. I haven’t had an opportunity yet to venture outside of the city properly (something I intend to remedy shortly) but I have found many lovely places while out running.

My favourite so far has to be Heiwaminami Ryokuchi Park (say that 3 times quickly) which is only a few kilometre jog from my apartment. Not only is it 100% trails with wonderful green foliage, but it is super-duper undulating. This means I can get all the hill training I could possibly want, all in one handy-dandy park!

Let’s take a quick photo tour…

Heiwaminami Ryokuchi Park

Photos never do justice to how steep a trail really is. But this was super steep, honest!  That aside, I love how green and verdant everything looks. Cannot get enough of this sort of trail.

Peeking out through the trees

Most of the views are obstructed by all the beautiful green foliage I was just mentioning, but occasionally you can peek out and see the city below.

View from the observation tower

One unique aspect of the park is the tower you can walk up to get 360 degree views of Fukuoka.

Cemeteries get all the best views

Right next to the park is a large cemetery. Japanese culture includes a lot of respect for the dead, so you can just imagine how this is both immaculately maintained and presented.

I’m a sucker for attractive looking clouds…

On the way back from the park now, waiting at an intersection. Not too much exciting happening, but I do like how the building in front is telling me something is “Good” with a solid thumbs up included. Thank you random building, things are indeed “Good”.

Filled with fishies!

What you can’t see very well in this final photo is all the fishies in the canal. The water is very clear, so you can see all the big buggers and little guys all swimming around.

Fukuoka Running / 福岡を走る

I’ve been doing a fair bit of running since I arrived in Fukuoka.  Since the weather has generally been good, it is just too tempting to resist getting out to run without the need for 3 layers, gloves, beanie and a prayer to the god of frostbite.  I haven’t done anything long distance yet, but I’ve given a 5km area south of Hakata station a good go.

Let’s go for a little virtual tour…

The first run is along one of the river/canals of Fukuoka city, specifically the Naka River.  I quite like this one as it has nice paths to run along the river, meaning I don’t have to stop for traffic every 200 meters.

View along the canal path of the Naka River

The path is really nice and smooth (reducing, but not eliminating the chances of me falling on my face) but also inset from the road, meaning it is quiet and feels fairly detached from the city.

Next up are two photos on the same street at the end of the canal path section which are fairly illustrative of the type of off-main-street views:

Side street in South Hakata

So much concrete…

They certainly do like concrete here.  Probably necessary for the whole earthquake thing, so you have to respect the choice of function over form.

The next stop is Sanno park, which is by far my favourite of the smaller parks in the area.  It boasts a 1.2km running track (nice and soft), a few little hills to sprint up and a shrine.  The shrine is especially nice, sitting in the middle of the park, but separated by sitting atop a small hill and surrounded by trees.

Hiyoshi Shrine in Sanno Park

Apart from the shrine, this park is quite different in that it has actual trees and grass.  Most parks are mostly concrete/dirt areas with a small row of trees.

Sanno Park

I’m planning on ranging out more on my runs over the summer and I’ll be reporting back with what I find!

Sakura / 桜

Today was spent exploring Fukuoka City’s various ins and outs.  I am very lucky that I have arrived just as the cherry blossoms have started to bloom, and I was able to see lots of them on my walk around.

Fukuoka Canals and Sakura

Fukuoka Canals and Sakura

Matthew Toy sakura

Oh look, its a selfie!

When I wasn’t watching for the cherry blossoms, I meandered around the city, past most of the large shopping areas, through a few parks and along many streets.  At first glance, Fukuoka is a fairly normal, medium sized city.  However it feels a little different here and I’m not sure I can put my finger on why that is yet. Might take more than a few hours of strolling to get to the heart of this city!

Fukuoka city street

Another street, another cluster of cherry blossoms

One thing I found today that isn’t your everyday occurrence (maybe it is in Fukuoka, that’s yet to be established), is I happened across a festival, or 祭り (matsuri), at one of the parks I visited. It had all the stalls you would expect, fried chicken, fried noddles, candy floss, samurai on horseback… wait, samurai what?

Samurai on Horseback

Just your everyday Samurai on a horse

Japan is always full of surprises 🙂

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